Real Estate Information

A recent article by Lawrence Yin, the cheif economist of NAR (National Assn Realtors) caught my attention.   I really never thought about it and I assume most of the readers of this blog didnt either but in any given year, there are 4 million new births, 2 million deaths, and one million new immigrants for a net gain of 3 million new American residents.  This also means that historically the net gain of "new households" is about 1 million new households a year.  Adding to this, there are approximately 2 million marriages anually and 1 million divorces, and all of this adds to changes in living patterns.

Furthermore according to Yin, homeowners look for a new place to live every 7-10 years on average and as a result over the next 10 years we can expect anywhere from 50 million to 70 million home sales !  Wow !!

According to an article in today's Oregonian newspaper, the Portland Metro region is expected to expand by an additional 1,200,000 people by 2030.   This includes the Portland-Vancouver-Salem MSA.  The source is Metro, the regional government for the Portland area.   They are also saying that by that time we will need an ADDITIONAL 300,000 housing units, and interestingly they are saying that by 2040 only 28% of the regions households will include children, a major drop from 50% of households as recently as 1960.  The entire article can be seen at www.oregonlive.com

The Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton metro area ranked No. 1 among 43 U.S. metro areas in a report on America’s “green cities.”

 As listed in the Portland Business Journal, The “Green Cities Index” ranks metro areas on a variety of environmental factors, including traffic congestion, transit use, water quality, carbon emissions, LEED-certified projects and number of “green” jobs. Read more here: http://portland.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2010/03/08/daily51.html?ed=2010-03-12&ana=e_du_pub

Portland has appeared at or near the top many times on many surveys.  At the same time Portland ranked 8th in the country for public transportation use.   More info on our transit system can be found at www.trimet.org

I am just finishing the last day of learning and sharing at the CyberStars conference in Phoenix. This is a select group of about 140 top producing Realtors who meet annualy and what we all have in common is a great knowledge of how to use technology to better our lives and real estate sales, as well as a desire to share what we know and learn from others.

I have attending this conference every year for 10 years now and I always come away with better tools and tricks to use. This year the emphasis seems to be on more blogging, the use of video, and CRM (customer relationship management). I have just finished creating a series of videos on various Portland neighborhoods which will be up on my site within the next few weeks to show newcomers the various areas to help them choose where to live.

Its also interesting to hear how some of the markets are in other areas, and particuarly as this event is being held in Phoenix where some properties have dropped as much as 60% in value. But at the same time they are now selling more homes than in the boom times as this is a prime opportunity for first time home buyers and investors to get into the market as interest rates and prices are so very low.

I look forward to returning home this evening and sharing what I learned with my team tomorrow.

Metro, the regional government for the Portland, Oregon metropolitan area recently released their projections for population growth in the area for both 2030 and for 2060.

Given the population from the 2000 census being at 1.93 Million, projections are there is a 90% chance that in the year 2030 (only 21 years from today) the population could be as much as 3.2 Million (between 2.9m and 3.2m), and in 2060 between 3.61 & 4.38 Million.

The forecasts are for the seven county area of the Portland-Vancouver(WA)-Beaverton MSA and include the counties of Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington, Yamhill & Columbia in Oregon and Clark and Scamania in Washington.

With our urban growth boundary, the question remains... Where do we put them all ?  But the bigger question from Portland's top Prudential Realtor's point of veiw is what do I tell my clients when they ask me to look inside my crystal ball and predict where prices will go in the next several years.  Clearly with our land use restrictions, booming population and UGB (urban growth boundary) our prices have no place to go but up in the long run.  In fact even in our slower market, the last 8 weeks have been very busy for us on the Rob Levy team to the extent we just hired a new assistant / office manager to keep up with all the sales.

Clearly in my mind, both from my personal and professional experience, there has not been a better time to invest in the future of Portland.  Prices are down,rates are down, inventory is high and we know the future is bright.

That really is the million dollar question.  Should I buy a house now, or should I wait and see if prices fall ?  But what if interest rates go up (per Bernanke's 60 Minutes interview in March, 09) then where do I stand ?   This chart REALLY shows the benefits of buying a home now vs waiting.

For more information or to find some homes that really make sense to buy now, give us a call.  As Portland's top selling Prudential Real Estate team for two years running and with over 20 years experience.

I sold a house this week that made me really think.....  A young couple were buying their first home, and they bought the house for more than $50,000 less than what it first went on the market for, and got the sellers to pay some closing cost assistance.   The net out of pocket for the buyers will be about $7,000.   Then - the US Government will pay them $8,000 as first time home buyers meaning they actually make $1,000 when the house closes!   Add to this the 4.875% interest rate they locked in and could there really be a better time for a first time home buyer to buy a home ?

Please listen to my podcast all about the $8,000 credit at http://www.roblevy.com/agent_files/talkrealty/player.htm

CLICK HERE to see the actual IRS form to claim the credit

We had a busy few weeks at the RobLevy team and again were #1 in the Portland area for Prudential Real Estate.  In fact, we have written more offers in the last 10 days than in the last 90 days.  It does seem to be picking up and the information above validates this.

If you know of anyone who could qualify as a first time home buyer (generally meaning someone who hasnt owned a home in more than three years), please

 Well, its that time of year again......  After a somewhat below normal winter the snowpack has been accumulating at a rapid pace on Mout Hood, and as you can see me snowboarding on the right, its the dry stuff too.

Portland Oregon offers great skiing...  The Mount Hood areas are 45 minutes to 1.25 hours away and offer all types of terrain, spectacular views, and lots of night skiing too.  In fact, one area has the largest lighted night ski area in North America.

The three main areas are Mount Hood Meadows.  This is my favourite and where I have my pass.  Its the farthest from Portland but I think has the best combination of lots of lifts, varied terrain and lighted night areas.

There is also historic Timberline lodge, this area also has several high speed lifts, and the historic lodge too.

Last but not least there is Mt Hood Ski Bowl.  Lower down the snow is sometimes damp, and the lifts are slower but thre is a combination of challenging terrain and beginner terrain.

We are lucky to live where we do here....  Its so close, I often leave work early and go up and snowboard for a while, then eat dinner, go out some more and come home.  Other days I head up early get in a couple of hours and come back and am at work by lunchtime.

There are of course many cross country areas too, its all in the Mount Hood National Forest...

So if you are thinking of moving to Portland or are a current resident, think about our gorgeous extinct volcano to the east...  We see it every day but not so many of us use it.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR (National Association of Realtors) spoke recently about the stimulus package, and that it might be too confusing in buyers minds not knowing what is, and what isnt available for prospective home buyers today.

Here is a direct quote from Mr. Yun....   . “Given so much stimulus package discussion in January, some would-be buyers simply sat out for clarity and certainty on the nature of housing stimulus,” he said. “The housing market will soon get a lift from very favorable buying conditions – not only from improved affordability, but also from the stimulus of an $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, and higher conforming loan limits that will allow more people to tap into 50-year low mortgage rates.”  The entire article can be seen by clicking here.  

As Portland's top Prudential Realtor, we are (finally) starting to see some movement in the starter home market which has been slow of late due in part from buyers not knowing about what is available to them, and also from investors not being able to buy due to the new limits on loans available for owners of more than four homes.  Both these issues have been alleviated somewhat in recent days.

For more information on the Portland, Oregon real estate market or to receive a list of homes available that meet your needs, or even a list of bank owned homes, contact us today.

Yet another accolade for Portland, Oregon.....

Forbes Magazine has listed Portland as the 5th best city to buy a house in the United States for 2009.   Its an interesting list in that they excluded many cities where prices have plummeted such as Phoenix, or Las Vegas as they want areas where buyers can build equity in a stable area. You can read the Forbes article here.

To see the actual index, click on this link  and you can scroll through the cities listed.

The Portland area continues to win awards or be selected from everything as the greenest city in the US to the best city to raise a family.  Recently Portland was listed as one of the fastest growing cities from in-migration particularly from the educated early 30's crowd.

If you want more information on the Portland area and are considering a move here, email me and I will send you a link to our relocation guide.